Siria. La situazione corrente. IAI Working Papers

IAI Working Papers

The series includes policy papers published by the Istituto Affari Internazionali • The Syrian File. The Role of the Opposition in a Multi-Layered Conflict, by C.Bianco Against the backdrop of Iraq's fragmentation and Egypt's derailed revolution, bold steps are clearly needed to prevent Syria from a likewise destiny, far worsened by the level of violence in the country and its role in the region's geopolitics. The degeneration of the crisis into sectarianism and social conflict is a tangible threat. This degeneration is fuelled by the lack of a common vision for the future of Syria among those intern ational players capable of influencing the conflict and within the internal opposition front. This paper analyses the anti-Assad front and outlines a post-war plan for national reconciliation framed in the context of the country’s own past and experiences from other countries in the region. • The Future of Syria and the Regional Arms Race, by S.Colombo The Syrian conflict is one of the most troubling issues facing the international community. This paper addresses some of the open questions in the Syrian crisis, namely the weaknesses of the opposition groups, the funding and arming of the opposition, the differences between the so-called moderate and extremist forces within it and the humanitarian aid provided to the Syrian refugees, focusing on the active engagement of the Arab Gulf countries, mainly Saudi Arabia and Qatar. A more or less covert arms race is taking place, which now risks spreading out both in geographical scope and intensity over the summer. • An Uncertain Road to Peace: Domestic and Regional Challenges in the Turkish-Kurdish Process,by E.Pergolizzi After almost three decades of armed struggle, negotiations between the Turkish government and the jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Abdullah Öcalan, offer a glimmer of hope to end Turkey’s most deadly conflict, which has cost up to 40,000 lives until now. New domestic and regional conditions suggest that the current peace effort has unprecedented chances of success. The prospective peace is al so the effect of Turkey’s democratic rise. The European Union, which could play a decisive anchoring role in the country’s democratization, has taken a step back, missing its chance of being a facilitator in this long standing conflict. • Where is Israel Heading?, by P.Ish-Shalom Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has weakened the Israeli Foreign Ministry by redistributing many of its traditional responsibilities to other authorities. Against the backdrop of this institutional mosaic, deciphering Israel's preferences about the negotiation with the Palestinians and its vision for a final settlement is next to impossible. A coherent strategy to deal with Israel's conflict with the Palestinians would warrant a government which provides a coherent agenda and agreed upon policies to a strengthened Foreign Ministry. • Behind the Scenes of the Turkish-Israeli Breakthrough, by D.Huber and N.Tocci After almost three years of diplomatic stalemate, Israel apologized to Turkey for the killing by the Israel Defence Forces of eight Turkish nationals and one Turkish-American during the Gaza Flotilla raid in May 2010. The apology was brokered by US Secretary of State John Kerry in the run-up to President Barack Obama’s visit to Israel. Syria, regional geopolitics and US relations with Israel all converged to lead to a politic al alignment of the stars. Perhaps above all else Eastern Mediterranean energy contributed to the breakthrough. Were plans to construct an undersea Turkish-Israeli pipeline to go ahead, ideally this could be used to transport gas not only from Israel’s Leviathan field, but from the entire Levant basin, Cyprus included. • The State-Migration Nexus in the Gulf in Light of the Arab Uprisings, by G.Fagotto The upheavals that spread across the Arab world in 2011 have not spared the Gulf monarchies. Here, the skewed demographic situation, characterized by high shares of migrant workers, has deeply influenced the protest movements. In light of the economic and social fallouts of this demographic imbalance, this paper aims to explain the evolving dynamics between rulers and citizens in the Gulf region. Indeed, even though the GCC countries have no t experienced radical institutional change, the claims of the protestors have challenged the basis of the current social contract.

For further information or orders, visit our website